| |
The United States should pursue more aggressively its two-track policy toward Pyongyang of sanctions and diplomacy to break the stalemate over its nuclear program and decrease “a very high risk” of further provocations, an expert said Wednesday. “The two-track policy is a good one, but it has been weakly implemented,” Bruce Klingner, a senior fellow at the U.S.-based Heritage Foundation, said on the sidelines of a nuclear forum in Seoul. “But more needs to be done on both tracks. We need more pain and more gain.” His remarks came amid a deepening stalemate over the North Korean nuclear program after the North threw cold water on efforts to revive multilateral negotiations by vowing never to deal with the Lee Myung-bak administration. He said the Obama government should start by fixing loopholes in U.N. Security Council resolutions so the North feels the full brunt of the sanctions, especially over its suspected proliferation activities. Klinger added that the United States should also target the countries the North is proliferating to, as the resolutions on Pyongyang apply to all member nations. “So far the U.S. and the U.N. have been reluctant to target non-NK targets. Clearly Iran, Burma and Syria, their entities there should be targeted and it’s extremely likely that Chinese companies and banks are involved,” he said. On May 26, a North Korean freighter suspected of containing illicit weapons and apparently en route to Myanmar was intercepted by a U.S. destroyer in waters off China. Access to the ship was denied, but it turned around and headed back to the North. But Washington must also make clearer to Pyongyang, the benefits of changing its behavior, Klingner said. “We need to present them a menu of benefits,” he said, listing humanitarian aid, economic development assistance, removal of sanctions and a gradual improvement of diplomatic relations among the incentives. The message could be delivered by Stephen Bosworth, Washington’s special envoy on North Korea. The stalemate has raised concerns that Pyongyang could launch fresh attacks following two deadly ones last year. The former CIA deputy division chief warned that Washington and Seoul’s growing skepticism over the ability to solve the nuclear issue diplomatically could cause the North to launch bolder provocations, saying there was even a “very high risk” of such an act within South Korea. “This could be a terrorist attack or a demonstration that they were able to target a nuclear reactor here, leaving behind an indication that a North Korean commando team had been there,” he said. Among other actions could be the instigation of skirmishes in the West Sea or a land clash along the heavily-fortified Demilitarized Zone that straddles Korea, he said. It could also test-fire a ballistic missile as far as 4,000 miles or conduct a uranium-based nuclear test, both of which would undoubtedly set off major alarms internationally. Washington and Seoul must maintain a third track of maintaining sufficient defenses against multifaceted threats from the North, including missile defense and non-proliferation efforts, he said. Many analysts believe that despite the North’s repeated statements that it wishes to return to the denuclearization forum, it is intent on keeping its program given the resources it has put into it. “Under the current paradigm, the North is unlikely to decide to give up its nuclear weapons. We have to change their cost-benefit analysis so it sees it’s more in its interest to give them up. But the ball is in its court.” He said Pyongyang could allow IAEA inspectors back into its main Yongbyon nuclear plant and resume previously agreed-upon “tangible first steps” to cool tensions and get dialogue back on track. “Then Washington would be more likely to resume food aid and come back to talks and suggest that Seoul resume contacts as well,” he said. | |
| yjk@koreatimes.co.kr | |
'More pain, more gain' policy needed to break NK stalemate: expert
